Market View - September 02, 2009

Most Asian markets rose yesterday after a positive result from China’s PMI. Nikkei added 0.36% (+37.53 pts) to 10,530, Hangseng gained 0.75% (+148.11 pts) to 19,872 and Shanghai was up 0.60% (+15.98 pts) to 2,683. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54 in August from 53.3 the month before. However, JCI fell 0.62% (-14.62%) to 2,326. Positive economic reports on housing and manufacturing did very little to uphold US equity markets. DJIA gave up 2% (-185.68 pts) to finish at 9,130 and Nasdaq also shed 2% (-40.17 pts) to 1,968. Pending home sales rose 3.2% in July, much better than the market expected. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management Index rose 8.18% to 52.9 in August. The Central Statistics Bureau announced yesterday that August’s inflation rose 0.56% mom or 2.75% yoy; slightly above 2.71% in July. This Thursday (3/0) Bank Indonesia will hold its monthly Rapat Dewan Gubernur. Markets expect BI to keep BI Rate at the current level 6.50%. On a seperate occasion, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani forecasted our GDP will expand 4.3% this year. Based on technical, indicators such as stochastic and MACD suggest JCI could continue its pullback. We would use 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 2,170 as our strong support and 70.4% fibo at 2,425 as our strong resistance. Today we expect JCI will be trading in a 2,316 to 2,346 range. Our picks are Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-4,000, S-3,225), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), and Unilever (UNVR, Buy, R-11,000, S-10,000).

Market View - August 31, 2009

Nikkei surged 2.89% to 10,238 while Shanghai plummeted 3.38% to 2,960 last week. Hangseng fell 0.50% to 20,199, DJIA was up 0.41% to 9,544. Trading was opened by a positive data from US; existing home sales rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions and a comment by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the global economy was beginning to emerge from recession. Speaking of Bernanke, President Obama nominated him for a second term as the Fed’s chairman. Positive reading kept coming as US consumer confidence rose to 54.1 in August and home price index also rose 15.44% in June. However investors worried about the Chinese stocks rally as the Chinese Government said they were not “blindly” optimistic about the economy. Also the Goverment plan to restain production in the steel and cement industries and to increase “guidance” over parts of the coal, glass and power industries. The week ended by another positive data from US. New home sales rose 9.62% to 433,000 in July, durable orders rose 4.9% in July, initial claims fell 1.72% to 570,000 and 2Q GDP fell 1.0% as expected. This week investors will focus on US data such as construction spending (31/8) and unemployment rate (4/9). From domestic, investors will wait for August’s inflation and Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia on Thursday (3/9). Last week JCI added 1.89% gains to 2,377. Our range for JCI this week is 2,362 to 2,386. We see 2,400 would be a short-term resistance and 2,425 as strong resistance. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-9,100, S-8,350), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-3,425, S-3,125), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), and Bank Rakyat Indonesia(BBRI, Buy, R-8,250, S-7,150).

Market View - August 27, 2009

Asian markets rose yesterday in response to a better-than-expected US consumer confidence that rose to 54.1 in August, President Obama’s nomination of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term and a better-than-expected German business confidence that rose to 90.5 in August, which was the highest level since September last year. Nikkei surged 142.35 pts (+1.36%) to 10,639, Shanghai advanced 51.79 pts (+1.78%) to 2,967 and Hangseng added 21.08 pts (+0.10%) to 20,456. However, European markets fell due to lower-than-expected result from Swiss Life Holding AG. JCI was slightly down by 0.43 pts (-0.02%) to 2,380. US markets mostly moved flat despite better-than-expected result from new home sales and durable orders. DJIA added 4.23 pts to 9,543 while Nasdaq added 0.20 pts to 2,024. New home sales rose 9.62% to 433,000 in July and durable orders rose 4.9% in July. Asian Development Bank in their latest statement forecasted Indonesia would grow 6% next year. However, the ADB mentioned that Asia, including Indonesia, should expand the domestic demand in response to a weak export outlook. On technical, there is a strong resistance for JCI at 2,400, which is very near to today’s 2nd resistance at 2,399. Indicators such as stochastic and MACD histogram still indicated JCI was on the way up. However, lower metals and oil price could negatively effect our market today. Our range for JCI today is 2,368 to 2,389. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia(TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Jasa Marga (JSMR, Buy, R-1,950, S-1,750), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-9,350, S-7,350), and Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500).

Market View - August 26, 2009

Asian markets retreated yesterday due to a drop in metals and oil prices. Investors also worried about the Chinese stocks rally as the Government said they were not “blindly” optimistic about the economy. Shanghai plummetted 77.62 pts (-2.59%) to 2,915, Hangseng slid 100.7 pts (-0.49%) to 20,435 and Nikkei was down 83.69 pts (-0.79%) to 10,497. JCI closed at 2,380, posted a 4.64 pts (+0.19%) gains. US market rose after a better-than-expected consumer confidence that rose to 54.1 in August, better than the 47.9 reading market expected. Home price index also rose 15.44% in June. DJIA was up 30.01 pts (+0.3%) to 9,539 while Nasdaq added 6.25 pts (+0.3%) to 2,024. The markets also reacted positively to President Obama’s nomination of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. JCI traded mostly in negative territory yesterday, and finally managed to stay positive near the end of trading day.Technical indicators indicated a rebound on JCI. Stochastic increased and JCI yesterday managed to closed above MA20. MACD histogram though still below zero line but it increased gradually. Our range for JCI today is 2,360 to 2,391. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), PP London Sumatera (LSIP, Buy, R-9,350, S-7,350), and Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP, Buy, R-11,000, S-9,500).

Market View - August 25, 2009

Asian markets rose more than 1% yesterday after a positive surprising existing home sales that rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions and a comment by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the global economy was beginning to emerge from recession. Markets also anticipate US consumer confidence to rise to 48 in August and new home sales to rise 1.56% in July to 390,000 units. Hangseng climbed 1.67% (+336.92 pts) to 20,535, Shanghai was up 1.10% (+32.66 pts) to 2,993 and Nikkei surged 3.35% (+342.85 pts) to 10,581. JCI added 1.79% (+41.97 pts) gains to 2,375 led by commodities shares.                                                                                                               Most US markets fell slightly yesterday led by financial companies and profits taking by investors. S&P 500 slid 0.05% (-0.56 pts) to 1,025 while DJIA was up 0.03% (+3.32 pts) to 9,509. Technical indicators started signaling a rebound on JCI. Stochastic increased and JCI yesterday managed to closed above MA20. MACD histogram though still below zero line but it increased gradualy. Our range for JCI today is 2,347 to 2,391. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,850, S-2,350), Astra International (ASII, Buy, R-32,000, S-28,000), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam(PTBA, Buy, R-14,800, S-12,800) and United Tractors (UNTR, Buy, R-14,500, S-13,000).

Market View - August 24, 2009

Asian markets took another pullback last week. The week started by a dissapointing results from US housing data last week. Building permits fell 1.75% to 560,000 in July and housing starts fell 1.02% to 581,000. Markets plummeted on Wednesday (19/8) led by China as investors concern the tighter lending would hurt China’s economic growth. Positive economic and manufacturing data from US made markets rebound the next day as US leading indicators rose 0.6% in July and manufacturing in Philadelphia rose to 4.2 in August from -7.5 the month before. However, on Friday (21/8) investors once again worried about China shares as the China Banking Regulatory Commission plan to tighten capital requirements for banks. Nikkei fell 3.39% to ended at 10,597, Hangseng plummeted 3.32% to 20,199, Shanghai plunged 2.82% to 2,960. DJIA was up 1.97% due to surprising existing home sales that rose 7.16% in July to 5.24 millions. This week investors will wait for US consumer confidence (25/8), new home sales (26/6) and 2Q GDP (27/8). Market expect consumer confidence will rise to 48, new home sales to 390,000. 2Q GDP is expected to contract 1.4%. Last week JCI fell 2.22% to 2,333, the first pullback after five weeks rally. We expect the market would be very volatile in this week. Our range for JCI this week is 2,278 to 2,387. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Buy, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Buy, R-2,625, S-2,200), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-31,000, S-28,000), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-7,450, S-6,800) and Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Buy, R-3,425, S-3,125).

Market View - August 21, 2009

Asian markets rebound led by Chinese stocks as investors expected the US leading indicators would rise 0.7% in July and existing home sales would jump 2.25% in July to 5 millions. Meanwhile oil price, which rose to $72/barrel as the Energy Department report showed US stockpiles dropped 8.4 million barrels last week, became the positive catalyst for commodities stocks. Shanghai index jumped 4.52% (+126 pts) to 2,911 and Hangseng surged 1.88% (+374.63 pts) to 20,328. Nikkei was up 1.76% (+179.41 pts) to 10,383. JCI rebound by 2.23% (+50.89 pts) to 2,328. The Dow and Nasdaq posted gains as positive data from manufacturing and economic indicators released. DJIA added 0.8% (+70.89 pts) gains to 9,350 while Nasdaq was up 1% (+19.98 pts) to 1,989. US leading indicators rose 0.6% in July, slightly below market expectations. Manufacturing in Philadelphia rose to 4.2 in August from -7.5 the month before. We reiterate our view that JCI is in its pullback period and we expect the market would be very volatile in the next few days. Stochastic and MACD indicate no positive signal for JCI to rebound. One positive sign is that yesterday JCI closed slightly above MA20. Our range for JCI today is 2,295 to 2,346. Our picks are Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM, Sell, R-8,800, S-8,100), Indofood (INDF, Sell, R-2,625, S-2,200), Astra International (ASII, Sell, R-31,000, S-28,000), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, Buy, R-7,450, S-6,800) and Perusahaan Gas Negara(PGAS, Sell, R-3,425, S-3,125).